Technological singularity (or more commonly, the Singularity) has captured my attention of late. The idea of the Singularity is that there will come a point in the future where super-human intelligence is realized. At that point, all of our models and predictions for the future will break down and become worthless, and technology will progress at a rate beyond the comprehension of humans.
This is not a brand new idea; in fact, it often shows up in Hollywood in the "Intelligent supercomputer/alien intelligence becomes self-aware and attempts to kill off all humans" genre of film. And while this type of story does sell movie tickets, people who study the implications of the Singularity say that, while something like that could happen, it is not necessarily a given. (The idea is that an artificial intelligence can be given a "disposition" towards humans, to treat them with respect as the creators even though they may be inferior.)
The idea of a super-human intelligence becoming self-aware and able to re-program itself (or even reconstruct itself) to continually improve is captivating. I read the online novella The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect and have been awed by the possibilities ever since. (This story has the superintelligent computer able to manipulate any physical object in any way... which may or may not come to pass. But it is an interesting story nonetheless.)
Singularity experts indicate that, on or around the year 2020, there will be computers in common use that match or exceed the computing capacity of the human brain (this assertion is made using detailed information as to how much information a single neuron can process in a timeframe, and comparing that to instructions that microprocessors can perform). By the year 2035 or thereabouts, they expect that the functionality of the entire human brain can be reverse engineered and programmed into a computer. (Portions of the brain that have already been reverse engineered can be programmed with relatively simple algorithms, as I understand.)
The idea that such an event may happen within my lifetime is enough to make me both excited and afraid. It has enormous implications for the physical world, as well as many spiritual/religious overtones.
The overall sentiment, that I agree with, is this: "if the Singularity CAN happen, then it WILL". Unless something massive occurrs to cease technological progress, I believe we will get there.
Posted by wrodina at August 22, 2005 12:44 PM | TrackBack